tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:06 pm at Salt Lake City); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3828 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 16:25 BIL 17:52 21% 8% 0.2% 89%
DL 1340 Delta Flight history → SLC 21:25 BIL 22:50 21% 5% 0.1% 80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 22:20 → BIL 23:30DL 2941 6h 09m 91% 73%
UnitedDetails → SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662 3h 29m Denver DEN 19:40 → BIL 21:17UA 1417 6h 49m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → SLC 17:57 → DEN 19:40UA 1910 1h 30m Denver DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 80% 56%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 16:00 → SEA 17:16AS 734 3h 38m Seattle SEA 20:54 → BIL 23:56AS 2457 · flown by Horizon 7h 56m 99% 53%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665 54m Seattle SEA 20:54 → BIL 23:56AS 2457 · flown by Horizon 5h 12m 38% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON