Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2214 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2214 SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1381 SLC 12:15 → BNA 16:33 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2214 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:25	BNA 13:46	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2205 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:45	BNA 18:13	16%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 2317 Delta Flight history →	SLC 18:45	BNA 23:05	16%	5%	0.6%	82%
WN 3384 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 11:25	BNA 15:40	19%	3%	0.5%	75%
WN 1381 Southwest	SLC 12:15	BNA 16:33	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SLC 10:40 → DEN 12:05WN 3739	50m Denver	DEN 12:55 → BNA 16:20WN 570	4h 40m	77%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON