Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 696 at 00:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 696 SLC 00:03 → BOS 06:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 248 SLC 23:59 → BOS 06:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 696 Delta Flight history →	SLC 00:03	BOS 06:21	10%	3%	0.2%	92%
DL 657 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:50	BOS 16:36	16%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 702 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:15	BOS 23:47	22%	6%	0.6%	79%
B6 248 JetBlue Flight history →	SLC 23:59	BOS 06:30	26%	10%	0.8%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	51m Denver	DEN 07:45 → BOS 13:49UA 558	6h 34m	94%	85%
Southwest Details →	SLC 10:40 → DEN 12:05WN 3739	1h 15m Denver	DEN 13:20 → BOS 19:10WN 735	6h 30m	96%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON