Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1290 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 1290 SLC 07:48 → BUR 08:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 339 SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1290 Delta	SLC 07:48	BUR 08:59	5%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 3681 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:55	BUR 09:02	5%	3%	0.2%	92%
DL 3933 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	BUR 11:54	7%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 3693 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:05	BUR 16:12	9%	5%	0.7%	93%
DL 339 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:50	BUR 21:48	24%	6%	0.5%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON