tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2079 Delta Flight history → SLC 00:01 BWI 06:05 6% 2% 0.2% 78%
WN 3735 Southwest Flight history → SLC 23:35 BWI 05:40 13% 3% 0.5% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 8h 15m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 3h 41m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 8h 41m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 2h 14m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 9h 52m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → ATL 11:43DL 8770 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 53m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 06:55 → MDW 10:55WN 3749 1h 50m Chicago MDW 12:45 → BWI 15:42WN 2848 6h 47m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 8h 02m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SLC 13:28 → ORD 18:02AA 2616 3h 23m Chicago ORD 21:25 → BWI 00:33 +1AA 4663 · flown by Republic 9h 05m 97% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 14:05 → MDW 18:05WN 3750 2h 45m Chicago MDW 20:50 → BWI 23:50WN 2746 7h 45m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835 48m Atlanta ATL 16:27 → BWI 18:23DL 2928 6h 28m 74% 62%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 14:05 → MDW 18:05WN 3750 55m Chicago MDW 19:00 → BWI 21:55WN 2745 5h 50m 72% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON