Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2070 SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1895 SLC 12:55 → CLT 18:51 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2070 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:55	CLT 16:52	14%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2611 American Flight history →	SLC 23:25	CLT 05:22	15%	4%	1.3%	77%
AA 2602 American Flight history →	SLC 12:15	CLT 18:28	22%	6%	1.2%	75%
AA 1895 American	SLC 12:55	CLT 18:51	23%	5%	1.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SLC 11:25 → BNA 15:40WN 3384	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 16:40 → CLT 19:10WN 478	5h 45m	81%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON