Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1430 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1430 SLC 05:15 → DAL 08:53 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3736 SLC 19:20 → DAL 22:55 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1430 Southwest	SLC 05:15	DAL 08:53	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1725 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 05:00	DAL 08:30	3%	1%	0.6%	94%
WN 3736 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 19:20	DAL 22:55	20%	5%	0.5%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON