Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 30 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3737 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3737 SLC 05:35 → DEN 07:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 4236 SLC 16:12 → DEN 17:51 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3737 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 05:35	DEN 07:00	2%	1%	0.5%	98%
WN 3872 Southwest	SLC 06:00	DEN 07:30	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5683 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 05:15	DEN 06:54	6%	3%	0.1%	95%
WN 3873 Southwest	SLC 08:14	DEN 09:44	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1232 United Flight history →	SLC 07:00	DEN 08:42	7%	3%	0.4%	95%
WN 3738 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 07:25	DEN 08:55	7%	2%	0.5%	95%
UA 5642 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 08:30	DEN 10:27	8%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 4720 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:05	DEN 14:51	8%	6%	0.6%	92%
WN 3874 Southwest	SLC 10:23	DEN 11:53	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:15	DEN 11:47	9%	3%	0.4%	84%
DL 1317 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	DEN 09:12	10%	3%	0.4%	95%
UA 2090 United	SLC 10:29	DEN 11:59	11%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 2004 United Flight history →	SLC 10:39	DEN 12:24	11%	5%	0.4%	92%
WN 1378 Southwest	SLC 11:53	DEN 13:23	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1478 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 12:20	DEN 13:50	12%	3%	0.5%	85%
DL 1667 Delta Flight history →	SLC 21:05	DEN 22:40	14%	4%	0.5%	79%
WN 4718 Southwest	SLC 13:08	DEN 14:38	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3739 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 10:40	DEN 12:05	16%	2%	0.5%	51%
WN 3741 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 19:35	DEN 21:05	18%	5%	0.5%	65%
WN 4851 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 21:40	DEN 23:10	18%	6%	0.5%	58%
F9 3220 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 11:32	DEN 13:11	19%	7%	0.7%	84%
F9 3862 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 08:16	DEN 10:01	20%	6%	0.7%	81%
DL 1586 Delta Flight history →	SLC 18:30	DEN 20:01	21%	5%	0.5%	71%
UA 1662 United Flight history →	SLC 14:28	DEN 16:11	22%	6%	0.4%	79%
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:24	DEN 16:54	23%	4%	0.4%	85%
UA 1910 United Flight history →	SLC 17:57	DEN 19:40	25%	8%	0.4%	70%
WN 3877 Southwest	SLC 16:30	DEN 18:00	27%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3740 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 16:50	DEN 18:20	30%	6%	0.5%	28%
F9 3982 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 15:41	DEN 17:21	30%	10%	0.7%	78%
F9 4236 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 16:12	DEN 17:51	33%	9%	0.7%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON