Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:34 am at Salt Lake City); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2236 SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2255 SLC 18:28 → DTW 23:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 2236 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:45	DTW 15:12	11%	3%	0.1%	94%
DL 8802 Delta	SLC 23:37	DTW 05:08	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2841 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:50	DTW 05:12	16%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 2244 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:50	DTW 19:15	18%	6%	0.1%	88%
DL 2255 Delta Flight history →	SLC 18:28	DTW 23:59	19%	6%	0.1%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON