Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4135 SLC 10:45 → EUG 11:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 4105 SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4135 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	EUG 11:48	8%	5%	0.6%	94%
OO 155 SkyWest	SLC 10:48	EUG 11:52	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 3721 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 22:55	EUG 23:55	9%	5%	0.6%	95%
DL 4105 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:02	EUG 16:02	12%	6%	0.6%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON