Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 19–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2033 SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 2109 SLC 11:31 → EWR 17:46 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2033 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:29	EWR 16:49	19%	6%	0.3%	83%
DL 2038 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:38	EWR 06:00	22%	5%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
UA 1845 United Flight history →	SLC 11:13	EWR 17:45	23%	8%	0.4%	73%
UA 2109 United	SLC 11:31	EWR 17:46	25%	8%	0.4%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 12:45 → ORD 16:53UA 1382	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 17:53 → EWR 20:57UA 2790	6h 12m	79%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON