Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:34 am at Salt Lake City); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 17–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1452 SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 1024 SLC 17:30 → GEG 18:13 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1452 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	GEG 12:12	17%	4%	0.1%	82%
DL 1503 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:25	GEG 16:08	19%	5%	0.1%	80%
DL 1466 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:15	GEG 23:55	20%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 1219 Delta	SLC 17:30	GEG 18:17	21%	5%	0.1%	no record
DL 1024 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:30	GEG 18:13	23%	6%	0.1%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON