Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2264 SLC 09:20 → IAD 15:31 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 847 SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2264 United Flight history →	SLC 09:20	IAD 15:31	13%	5%	0.7%	82%
UA 1322 United Flight history →	SLC 09:48	IAD 16:18	14%	4%	0.7%	97%worse than usual
DL 847 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:30	IAD 23:29	16%	5%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON