Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2366 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2366 SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 497 SLC 13:00 → IAH 17:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2366 United Flight history →	SLC 06:45	IAH 10:57	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 2502 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:27	IAH 13:31	18%	4%	0.6%	90%
OO 5545 SkyWest	SLC 16:23	IAH 20:52	19%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 2514 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:45	IAH 21:50	20%	6%	0.6%	79%
DL 1299 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:45	IAH 17:53	21%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 1532 Delta	SLC 09:29	IAH 13:30	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 497 United Flight history →	SLC 13:00	IAH 17:12	22%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 6282 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SLC 17:33	IAH 21:50	15%	7%	1.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON