Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:46 pm at Salt Lake City)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2228 at 17:50, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2228 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:50	IND 22:59	17%	8%	0.1%	84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 20:08 → SFO 21:10UA 2097	2h 24m San Francisco	SFO 23:34 → IND 07:09 +1UA 1726	9h 01m	87%	73%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	7h 10m	91%	65%
Southwest Details →	SLC 14:50 → LAS 15:15WN 4338	3h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 18:15 → IND 00:49 +1WN 4691	7h 59m	100%	52%
Southwest Details →	SLC 15:15 → PHX 16:00WN 3353	3h 15m Phoenix	PHX 19:15 → IND 01:45 +1WN 3231	8h 30m	100%	48%
Alaska Details →	SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665	2h 39m Seattle	SEA 22:39 → IND 05:44 +1AS 624	9h 00m	88%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SLC 16:14 → ORD 20:30UA 1963	55m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → IND 23:44UA 3660 · flown by Republic	5h 30m	54%	49%
Delta Details →	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	46m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 +1DL 674	4h 55m	55%	46%
Southwest Details →	SLC 16:50 → DEN 18:20WN 3740	55m Denver	DEN 19:15 → IND 23:50WN 1211	5h 00m	42%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON