Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:10 am at Salt Lake City); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: DL 705 at 23:59 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet today DL 705 SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 671 SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 705 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:59	JFK 06:18	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1792 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:59	JFK 16:47	14%	3%	0.2%	84%
DL 697 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	JFK 23:47	20%	4%	0.6%	82%
B6 372 JetBlue Flight history →	SLC 00:11	JFK 06:16	24%	6%	0.5%	79%
DL 671 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:35	JFK 21:25	24%	5%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON