Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3880 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3880 SLC 06:30 → LAS 07:03 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1690 SLC 17:40 → LAS 18:04 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3880 Southwest	SLC 06:30	LAS 07:03	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4205 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 06:30	LAS 06:55	3%	1%	0.5%	100%
DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:25	LAS 08:50	8%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 1242 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 11:05	LAS 11:30	15%	2%	0.4%	80%
WN 3086 Southwest	SLC 11:30	LAS 12:03	15%	3%	0.4%	no record
DL 1662 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:15	LAS 23:40	18%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	LAS 12:01	19%	3%	0.6%	77%
F9 4695 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 09:21	LAS 10:03	19%	7%	0.8%	87%
WN 3745 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 20:30	LAS 21:00	22%	6%	0.5%	58%
WN 2333 Southwest	SLC 15:10	LAS 15:41	22%	5%	0.4%	no record
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:30	LAS 15:55	22%	5%	0.6%	76%
WN 4338 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 14:50	LAS 15:15	25%	6%	0.4%	52%
F9 2575 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 13:47	LAS 14:21	27%	10%	0.8%	80%
DL 1690 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:40	LAS 18:04	28%	5%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON