Today: UA 5408 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–27%.

Safest bet today UA 5408 SLC 07:45 → LAX 09:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1161 SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5408 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:45	LAX 09:15	7%	3%	0.1%	90%
DL 1087 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:53	LAX 08:50	12%	2%	0.1%	92%
F9 4129 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 10:20	LAX 11:22	13%	4%	0.4%	90%
DL 1095 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:35	LAX 10:34	14%	2%	0.1%	92%
UA 5456 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 16:42	LAX 17:53	14%	8%	0.5%	97%worse than usual
WN 3746 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 11:20	LAX 12:15	15%	3%	0.2%	94%
OO 5916 SkyWest	SLC 14:22	LAX 15:43	17%	4%	0.1%	no record
DL 829 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	LAX 12:27	18%	3%	0.1%	88%
DL 841 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:40	LAX 16:36	22%	4%	0.1%	81%
DL 1197 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	LAX 23:42	22%	5%	0.6%	84%
F9 1267 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 19:00	LAX 20:11	25%	9%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
WN 3931 Southwest	SLC 16:30	LAX 17:29	26%	6%	0.4%	no record
DL 1142 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:35	LAX 21:29	27%	6%	0.6%	76%
DL 1161 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	LAX 18:07	27%	6%	0.6%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON