Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:22 pm at Salt Lake City); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 108 SLC 15:05 → LGB 16:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4983 SLC 19:20 → LGB 20:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 108 SkyWest	SLC 15:05	LGB 16:11	10%	6%	0.1%	no record
DL 3793 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:05	LGB 16:06	11%	6%	0.1%	94%
DL 1167 Delta	SLC 20:45	LGB 21:46	12%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 3124 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:40	LGB 21:32	15%	6%	0.2%	83%
WN 3883 Southwest	SLC 18:55	LGB 19:57	16%	6%	0.1%	no record
WN 4983 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 19:20	LGB 20:15	20%	6%	0.1%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON