Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2882 SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2993 SLC 20:50 → MCI 00:13 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2882 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:34	MCI 13:57	13%	4%	0.1%	89%
DL 2903 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:40	MCI 17:05	20%	4%	0.1%	86%
DL 2993 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:50	MCI 00:13	22%	5%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON