tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:19 am at Salt Lake City)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: DL 2069 at 23:36 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–30%.

Safest bet today DL 2069 SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 2024 SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time
Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 2069 Delta Flight history → SLC 23:36 MCO 06:00 16% 5% 1.0% 85%
DL 2032 Delta Flight history → SLC 09:35 MCO 16:13 27% 4% 0.2% 84%worse than usual
DL 2056 Delta Flight history → SLC 17:25 MCO 23:55 28% 8% 1.2% 82%worse than usual
DL 2024 Delta Flight history → SLC 11:23 MCO 18:01 30% 6% 0.3% 81%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → ATL 11:43DL 8770 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 12:58 → MCO 14:29DL 1576 6h 29m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 07:25 → DEN 08:55WN 3738 1h 05m Denver DEN 10:00 → MCO 15:55WN 1339 6h 30m 93% 73%
DeltaDetails → SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162 6h 27m 86% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON