Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:38 pm at Salt Lake City)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2515 at 13:40, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2515 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:40	MEM 17:40	16%	6%	0.1%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SLC 15:25 → ORD 19:45AA 3258	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	7h 53m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	7h 15m	95%	70%
Southwest Details →	SLC 14:05 → MDW 18:05WN 3750	3h 20m Chicago	MDW 21:25 → MEM 23:10WN 4100	8h 05m	100%	67%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → MEM 23:29DL 8930	6h 58m	88%	62%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:08 → AUS 17:57DL 2581	1h 58m Austin	AUS 19:55 → MEM 21:48DL 3952 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	91%	55%
United Details →	SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662	1h 19m Denver	DEN 17:30 → MEM 20:56UA 2130	5h 28m	82%	53%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841	1h 38m Los Angeles	LAX 18:14 → MEM 23:59DL 1080	7h 19m	95%	52%
American Details →	SLC 14:00 → DFW 17:50AA 2613	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MEM 23:06AA 1758	8h 06m	99%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	50m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230	6h 11m	61%	47%
United Details →	SLC 16:14 → ORD 20:30UA 1963	50m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	6h 07m	49%	35%
American Details →	SLC 16:42 → DFW 20:30AA 2594	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MEM 23:06AA 1758	5h 24m	61%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON