Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2040 at 23:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2040 SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 483 SLC 14:04 → MIA 21:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2040 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:00	MIA 05:40	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 3070 American Flight history →	SLC 23:59	MIA 06:43	19%	5%	0.8%	81%
AA 3282 American	SLC 00:05	MIA 06:32	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 483 American Flight history →	SLC 14:04	MIA 21:00	33%	6%	0.9%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:42 → MIA 15:50UA 1418	6h 50m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → ATL 11:43DL 8770	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 12:52 → MIA 14:55DL 1579	6h 55m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	56m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 45m	91%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON