Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2916 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2916 SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2935 SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2916 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:00	MSP 11:29	7%	3%	0.5%	91%
DL 2924 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:10	MSP 14:40	11%	4%	0.5%	90%
DL 2936 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:00	MSP 17:32	16%	4%	0.5%	88%
DL 2935 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:21	MSP 20:54	20%	5%	0.5%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON