Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1186 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1186 SLC 10:35 → OAK 11:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2951 SLC 13:00 → OAK 13:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1186 Southwest	SLC 10:35	OAK 11:35	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 3797 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 22:50	OAK 23:50	7%	6%	0.6%	95%
DL 4134 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	OAK 11:46	7%	5%	0.5%	93%
DL 3903 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:20	OAK 16:21	9%	6%	0.5%	91%
WN 2951 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 13:00	OAK 13:50	16%	5%	0.5%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON