Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1173 SLC 10:42 → ONT 11:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1614 SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1173 Delta	SLC 10:42	ONT 11:43	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3872 SkyWest	SLC 08:11	ONT 09:16	9%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 1302 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:00	ONT 08:47	10%	3%	0.4%	97%
DL 3172 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:21	ONT 12:10	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
OO 3744 SkyWest	SLC 15:34	ONT 16:39	11%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 4443 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:35	ONT 16:30	11%	7%	0.6%	87%
DL 1614 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:59	ONT 23:48	15%	5%	0.7%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON