Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:37 am at Salt Lake City); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Today: UA 1502 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet today UA 1502 SLC 08:00 → ORD 12:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2616 SLC 13:28 → ORD 18:02 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1502 United Flight history →	SLC 08:00	ORD 12:20	10%	4%	0.2%	84%
DL 2247 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	ORD 12:00	11%	3%	0.1%	88%
DL 2377 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:40	ORD 18:57	19%	4%	0.1%	72%
AA 1991 American	SLC 11:40	ORD 15:51	20%	6%	0.1%	no record
UA 1178 United Flight history →	SLC 12:35	ORD 17:00	20%	6%	0.1%	67%
DL 2413 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:21	ORD 21:29	20%	4%	0.1%	75%
UA 2072 United Flight history →	SLC 16:18	ORD 20:40	21%	7%	0.2%	66%
AA 2780 American Flight history →	SLC 16:56	ORD 21:34	21%	8%	0.2%	75%
UA 1382 United Flight history →	SLC 12:45	ORD 16:53	22%	5%	0.1%	76%
AA 3258 American Flight history →	SLC 15:24	ORD 19:44	23%	8%	0.2%	60%
UA 1963 United Flight history →	SLC 16:13	ORD 20:28	23%	6%	0.2%	73%
AA 1873 American	SLC 17:20	ORD 21:31	23%	8%	0.2%	no record
AA 2616 American Flight history →	SLC 13:28	ORD 18:02	24%	7%	0.1%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON