Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3004 SLC 08:20 → PDX 09:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1244 SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3004 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 08:20	PDX 09:26	6%	4%	0.6%	94%
DL 1203 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	PDX 08:37	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
AS 3117 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:46	PDX 13:49	9%	6%	0.6%	92%
AS 3430 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:26	PDX 13:30	9%	6%	0.6%	90%
AS 446 Alaska	SLC 08:21	PDX 09:19	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1209 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:15	PDX 12:10	10%	4%	0.7%	89%
AS 3280 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 19:39	PDX 20:43	13%	8%	0.6%	80%
DL 1373 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:50	PDX 23:44	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 1238 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	PDX 18:18	16%	5%	0.7%	87%
DL 1244 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:17	PDX 16:09	16%	5%	0.7%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON