Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2337 SLC 06:29 → PHL 12:52 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2022 SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2337 American	SLC 06:29	PHL 12:52	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
DL 2075 Delta Flight history →	SLC 00:03	PHL 06:11	14%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 3057 American Flight history →	SLC 07:01	PHL 13:26	14%	6%	0.9%	84%
DL 2022 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:20	PHL 17:39	17%	4%	0.7%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	53m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	6h 12m	83%	67%
Southwest Details →	SLC 06:55 → MDW 10:55WN 3749	50m Chicago	MDW 11:45 → PHL 14:54WN 3266	5h 59m	80%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON