Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4507 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4507 SLC 06:12 → PHX 06:58 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4949 SLC 21:10 → PHX 21:56 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4507 Southwest	SLC 06:12	PHX 06:58	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3751 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 06:15	PHX 06:55	4%	1%	0.5%	88%
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:05	PHX 08:44	9%	3%	0.6%	95%
AA 6327 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:13	PHX 07:57	11%	5%	0.5%	91%
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	PHX 12:12	14%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 3888 Southwest	SLC 11:20	PHX 12:06	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 403 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 11:35	PHX 12:15	16%	3%	0.5%	82%
WN 2973 Southwest	SLC 12:35	PHX 13:21	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:17	PHX 13:02	16%	6%	0.5%	87%
DL 1496 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	PHX 23:31	16%	4%	0.6%	88%
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:40	PHX 14:41	17%	6%	0.5%	96%worse than usual
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:20	PHX 16:04	19%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 1451 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	PHX 18:07	22%	6%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
WN 3753 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 21:25	PHX 22:05	24%	8%	0.5%	32%
WN 3939 Southwest	SLC 15:20	PHX 16:10	25%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 3871 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 12:41	PHX 13:21	25%	10%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AA 4928 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 18:50	PHX 19:37	26%	10%	0.5%	53%
WN 3353 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 15:15	PHX 16:00	28%	5%	0.5%	62%
WN 3538 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 19:00	PHX 19:40	28%	8%	0.5%	50%
F9 4949 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 21:10	PHX 21:56	30%	13%	0.7%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON