Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:08 pm at Salt Lake City); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 3756 at 23:07, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 3756 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 23:07	RDM 23:58	8%	2%	0.2%	95%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Redmond is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → RDM 22:57DL 4047 · flown by SkyWest	6h 37m	96%	64%
United Details →	SLC 16:42 → LAX 17:53UA 5456 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Los Angeles	LAX 18:54 → RDM 21:11UA 1129	5h 29m	86%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SLC 18:50 → PHX 19:37AA 4928 · flown by SkyWest	49m Phoenix	PHX 20:26 → RDM 22:59AA 3597 · flown by Envoy	5h 09m	69%	55%
Alaska Details →	SLC 19:38 → PDX 20:41AS 3308 · flown by SkyWest	51m Portland	PDX 21:32 → RDM 22:29AS 2057 · flown by Horizon	3h 51m	57%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON