Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:41 pm at Salt Lake City); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1607 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:20	RNO 23:47	16%	3%	0.2%	85%
DL 3732 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 16:15	RNO 16:52	23%	10%	0.2%	90%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 16:42 → LAX 17:53UA 5456 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Los Angeles	LAX 21:10 → RNO 22:38UA 2238	6h 56m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161	3h 52m Los Angeles	LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest	7h 18m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	SLC 14:50 → LAS 15:15WN 4338	3h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 19:00 → RNO 20:28WN 4752	6h 38m	100%	69%
United Details →	SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662	3h 14m Denver	DEN 19:25 → RNO 20:50UA 719	7h 22m	95%	65%
Southwest Details →	SLC 20:30 → LAS 21:00WN 3745	1h 46m Las Vegas	LAS 22:46 → RNO 00:14 +1WN 4581	4h 44m	87%	56%
Southwest Details →	SLC 19:00 → PHX 19:40WN 3538	2h 51m Phoenix	PHX 22:31 → RNO 00:29 +1WN 418	6h 29m	97%	56%
United Details →	SLC 20:08 → SFO 21:10UA 2097	1h 35m San Francisco	SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757	4h 50m	76%	53%
American Details →	SLC 13:52 → PHX 14:00AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Phoenix	PHX 16:48 → RNO 18:45AA 3113	5h 53m	100%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:20 → RNO 19:58DL 2560	6h 58m	63%	49%
Southwest Details →	SLC 20:30 → LAS 21:00WN 3745	56m Las Vegas	LAS 21:56 → RNO 23:23WN 2391	3h 53m	65%	43%
Alaska Details →	SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665	52m Seattle	SEA 20:52 → RNO 22:40AS 736	4h 56m	32%	14%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON