Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Today: WN 2794 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet today WN 2794 SLC 07:50 → SAN 08:54 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3639 SLC 16:25 → SAN 17:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2794 Southwest	SLC 07:50	SAN 08:54	13%	4%	0.3%	no record
DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	SAN 08:41	13%	5%	0.5%	93%
AS 3018 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:40	SAN 08:50	14%	5%	0.4%	93%
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:10	SAN 12:08	16%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 1202 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:55	SAN 23:50	22%	4%	0.7%	83%
OO 3119 SkyWest	SLC 14:17	SAN 15:27	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 3123 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 14:39	SAN 15:46	24%	6%	0.6%	83%
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:00	SAN 15:56	24%	4%	0.6%	76%
AS 3019 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 18:06	SAN 19:16	28%	7%	0.7%	80%
DL 1252 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	SAN 18:06	28%	5%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
WN 3754 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 12:55	SAN 13:50	30%	5%	0.5%	50%
WN 3639 Southwest	SLC 16:25	SAN 17:30	33%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON