Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:50 am at Salt Lake City); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: DL 920 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet today DL 920 SLC 07:50 → SFO 08:51 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest UA 2097 SLC 20:08 → SFO 21:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 12% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 920 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	SFO 08:51	14%	4%	0.2%	67%
DL 1091 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:50	SFO 23:52	15%	6%	0.7%	66%
UA 5970 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 09:49	SFO 11:13	21%	8%	0.1%	36%
DL 1088 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	SFO 16:12	21%	7%	0.1%	66%
DL 902 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:00	SFO 12:03	23%	6%	0.2%	66%
F9 3393 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 17:02	SFO 18:23	25%	10%	0.7%	69%
DL 2762 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:59	SFO 21:59	26%	6%	0.7%	59%
UA 1225 United	SLC 16:28	SFO 17:42	26%	9%	0.2%	no record
UA 2097 United Flight history →	SLC 20:08	SFO 21:10	30%	9%	0.5%	12%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON