Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1198 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1198 SLC 08:00 → SNA 08:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 3856 SLC 17:25 → SNA 18:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1198 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:00	SNA 08:54	12%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 1304 Delta Flight history →	SLC 21:05	SNA 22:00	16%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 1835 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:55	SNA 11:50	18%	5%	0.6%	81%
DL 1277 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:15	SNA 16:09	20%	7%	0.6%	84%
OO 3730 SkyWest	SLC 17:14	SNA 18:18	25%	10%	0.7%	no record
DL 3856 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 17:25	SNA 18:25	25%	9%	0.7%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON