Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: DL 2455 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Safest bet today DL 2455 SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2666 SLC 20:50 → STL 00:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2455 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:40	STL 13:33	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1492 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	STL 19:00	22%	5%	0.6%	81%
DL 2666 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:50	STL 00:41	22%	4%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON