Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 3973 SLC 11:15 → SUN 12:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3689 SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3973 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 11:15	SUN 12:25	8%	3%	0.2%	92%
DL 3985 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 21:05	SUN 22:07	8%	3%	0.7%	96%
OO 172 SkyWest	SLC 11:20	SUN 12:31	9%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 3689 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:25	SUN 14:31	12%	3%	0.7%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON