Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:43 pm at Salt Lake City)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 3825 at 20:55, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 3825 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 20:55	TUL 00:29	21%	7%	0.3%	83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SLC 15:25 → ORD 19:45AA 3258	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	7h 41m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	SLC 14:05 → MDW 18:05WN 3750	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 21:30 → TUL 23:26WN 301	8h 21m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	SLC 14:50 → LAS 15:15WN 4338	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 17:40 → TUL 22:20WN 2188	6h 30m	100%	67%
United Details →	SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662	1h 26m Denver	DEN 17:37 → TUL 20:27UA 1937	4h 59m	84%	61%
American Details →	SLC 14:00 → DFW 17:50AA 2613	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:51 → TUL 22:08AA 2014	7h 08m	98%	60%
American Details →	SLC 16:45 → DFW 20:23AA 1456	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	6h 02m	91%	55%
Southwest Details →	SLC 15:15 → PHX 16:00WN 3353	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 18:05 → TUL 22:25WN 3356	6h 10m	93%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	53m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	6h 48m	69%	54%
United Details →	SLC 17:57 → DEN 19:40UA 1910	1h 15m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	4h 50m	74%	48%
Southwest Details →	SLC 16:50 → DEN 18:20WN 3740	1h 10m Denver	DEN 19:30 → TUL 22:14WN 2291	4h 24m	67%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON