Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:41 am at Salt Lake City)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 3620 at 13:30, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:30	XNA 17:15	16%	5%	0.2%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SLC 15:24 → ORD 19:44AA 3258	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → XNA 00:26 +1AA 3960 · flown by Envoy	8h 02m	100%	86%
American Details →	SLC 13:40 → PHX 14:41AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Phoenix	PHX 15:49 → XNA 20:30AA 4086 · flown by Envoy	5h 50m	100%	83%
American Details →	SLC 13:28 → ORD 18:02AA 2616	3h 25m Chicago	ORD 21:27 → XNA 23:14AA 3941 · flown by Envoy	8h 46m	96%	82%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	98%	80%
American Details →	SLC 08:00 → DFW 11:47AA 2195	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	6h 27m	96%	77%
United Details →	SLC 13:00 → IAH 17:12UA 497	3h 00m Houston	IAH 20:12 → XNA 21:55UA 6308 · flown by Mesa	7h 55m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 21:17 → XNA 22:15DL 1864	7h 40m	94%	75%
American Details →	SLC 16:44 → DFW 20:22AA 1456	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → XNA 23:47AA 3693 · flown by Envoy	6h 03m	93%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SLC 17:57 → DEN 19:40UA 1910	57m Denver	DEN 20:37 → XNA 23:44UA 5269 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	64%	48%
American Details →	SLC 16:42 → DFW 20:30AA 2594	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:19 → XNA 22:37AA 3059	4h 55m	63%	39%
American Details →	SLC 11:18 → DFW 15:06AA 2607	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:52 → XNA 17:07AA 1804	4h 49m	64%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON