Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 741 SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 878 SMF 22:00 → ATL 05:31 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 741 Delta Flight history →	SMF 06:30	ATL 14:09	11%	3%	1.0%	93%
DL 904 Delta Flight history →	SMF 12:21	ATL 20:05	15%	4%	1.3%	91%
DL 878 Delta Flight history →	SMF 22:00	ATL 05:31	16%	4%	1.2%	92%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 37m	93%	76%
Southwest Details →	SMF 05:55 → DEN 09:15WN 3773	1h 30m Denver	DEN 10:45 → ATL 15:35WN 2258	6h 40m	100%	74%
United Details →	SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285	1h 10m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	6h 40m	90%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON