Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:08 am at Sacramento); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3894 at 15:00, 39%.

Nonstops today


WN 3894 Southwest	SMF 15:00	AUS 20:25	39%	8%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 13:15 → IAH 19:10UA 1949	3h 05m Houston	IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179	7h 57m	98%	65%
Southwest Details →	SMF 11:50 → MCI 17:00WN 3798	2h 25m Kansas City	MCI 19:25 → AUS 21:25WN 302	7h 35m	100%	64%
United Details →	SMF 11:46 → SFO 12:53UA 5248 · flown by SkyWest	3h 37m San Francisco	SFO 16:30 → AUS 22:14UA 2150	8h 28m	99%	61%
United Details →	SMF 14:11 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m San Francisco	SFO 18:27 → AUS 00:13 +1UA 2126	8h 02m	98%	59%
Delta Details →	SMF 13:36 → SLC 16:13DL 1423	1h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	5h 54m	85%	58%
Southwest Details →	SMF 12:00 → DEN 15:20WN 3775	3h 36m Denver	DEN 18:56 → AUS 22:08WN 1129	8h 08m	100%	58%
United Details →	SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961	2h 13m Denver	DEN 18:39 → AUS 21:57UA 1942	6h 57m	92%	57%
Southwest Details →	SMF 12:20 → LAS 13:50WN 4278	2h 43m Las Vegas	LAS 16:33 → AUS 21:15WN 4532	6h 55m	100%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SMF 13:19 → MSP 18:48DL 1701	57m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → AUS 22:25DL 2749	7h 06m	62%	40%
Southwest Details →	SMF 18:00 → SAN 19:30WN 1169	1h 00m San Diego	SAN 20:30 → AUS 01:30 +1WN 3477	5h 30m	52%	23%
Southwest Details →	SMF 18:25 → SAN 20:06WN 3670	49m San Diego	SAN 20:55 → AUS 01:49 +1WN 3661	5h 24m	10%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON