Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3899 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3899 SMF 06:30 → BUR 08:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1890 SMF 20:00 → BUR 21:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3899 Southwest	SMF 06:30	BUR 08:02	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 4909 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 06:40	BUR 07:55	4%	1%	0.9%	100%
WN 3900 Southwest	SMF 08:40	BUR 10:12	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3764 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 09:00	BUR 10:15	6%	2%	0.9%	95%
WN 3765 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 11:10	BUR 12:30	9%	2%	0.8%	96%
WN 3901 Southwest	SMF 11:05	BUR 12:37	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3902 Southwest	SMF 12:30	BUR 14:02	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3903 Southwest	SMF 14:00	BUR 15:32	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 3767 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 14:00	BUR 15:15	18%	4%	0.8%	78%
WN 3768 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 16:00	BUR 17:15	21%	5%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
WN 3360 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:20	BUR 19:35	22%	8%	0.7%	76%
WN 1890 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 20:00	BUR 21:20	22%	9%	0.8%	88%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON