tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3622 Southwest Flight history → SMF 21:40 BWI 05:35 17% 3% 0.5% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 9h 00m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 12:00 → MDW 17:55WN 3769 2h 55m Chicago MDW 20:50 → BWI 23:50WN 2746 8h 50m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest 2h 26m Los Angeles LAX 23:05 → BWI 07:14 +1UA 1605 9h 27m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:15 → MDW 11:10WN 2728 1h 35m Chicago MDW 12:45 → BWI 15:43WN 2848 7h 28m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 17:30 → ONT 18:55WN 480 2h 45m Ontario ONT 21:40 → BWI 05:30 +1WN 3143 9h 00m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 06:00 → SFO 06:54UA 1954 2h 39m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 8h 57m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 19:03 → SFO 20:10UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 +1UA 1340 9h 07m 97% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:33UA 2766 47m Chicago ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675 7h 11m 53% 45%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 10:45 → SAN 12:20WN 1222 47m San Diego SAN 13:07 → BWI 20:58WN 3630 7h 13m 61% 42%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:13 → SEA 08:16AS 1409 47m Seattle SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04AS 378 7h 51m 50% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON