tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2464 American Flight history → SMF 22:03 CLT 06:08 16% 4% 1.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821 9h 34m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:15 → MDW 11:10WN 2728 1h 50m Chicago MDW 13:00 → CLT 16:00WN 4343 7h 45m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 35m Denver DEN 09:57 → CLT 15:25UA 2231 7h 25m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 8h 22m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 13:19 → MSP 18:48DL 1701 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 7h 25m 92% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 10:25 → STL 16:05WN 920 1h 30m St Louis STL 17:35 → CLT 20:23WN 3690 6h 58m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa 7h 47m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 11m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → CLT 17:12AA 1676 8h 12m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SMF 14:55 → DFW 20:28AA 2634 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → CLT 00:59 +1AA 2409 7h 04m 61% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON