Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1544 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1544 SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2634 SMF 14:55 → DFW 20:28 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1544 American Flight history →	SMF 05:18	DFW 10:47	9%	3%	1.6%	90%
AA 1021 American Flight history →	SMF 06:42	DFW 12:10	13%	4%	1.6%	85%
AA 2081 American Flight history →	SMF 11:06	DFW 16:33	25%	6%	1.2%	85%
AA 2633 American Flight history →	SMF 11:02	DFW 16:35	25%	6%	1.2%	75%
AA 3314 American Flight history →	SMF 23:45	DFW 05:04	27%	6%	1.2%	74%
AA 2634 American Flight history →	SMF 14:55	DFW 20:28	33%	9%	1.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON