Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3712 Southwest	SMF 22:02	EUG 23:31	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 291 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 20:25	EUG 21:50	24%	6%	0.6%	67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → EUG 23:55DL 3721 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	SMF 17:08 → SEA 19:07AS 683	3h 42m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	6h 51m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → EUG 11:48DL 4135 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	97%	87%
American Details →	SMF 16:13 → PHX 18:16AA 6354 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Phoenix	PHX 20:40 → EUG 23:17AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	7h 04m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:46 → PDX 13:18AS 621	1h 12m Portland	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	3h 37m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon	1h 12m Portland	PDX 10:59 → EUG 11:57AS 3063 · flown by SkyWest	3h 44m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 17m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SMF 19:17 → PDX 20:50AS 2335 · flown by Horizon	50m Portland	PDX 21:40 → EUG 22:28AS 2088 · flown by Horizon	3h 11m	57%	45%
Alaska Details →	SMF 16:43 → SAN 18:20AS 2406 · flown by Horizon	56m San Diego	SAN 19:16 → EUG 21:46AS 3319 · flown by SkyWest	5h 03m	60%	43%
Alaska Details →	SMF 12:57 → SEA 14:56AS 1476	54m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon	4h 03m	60%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON