tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:50 am at Sacramento)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:20, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2075 United SMF 22:49 EWR 07:02 21% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 2132 United Flight history → SMF 22:54 EWR 07:06 21% 5% 0.7% 77%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342 3h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 10h 00m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:37 → DEN 21:59UA 1841 2h 00m Denver DEN 23:59 → EWR 05:40 +1UA 1745 8h 03m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → SMF 16:13 → PHX 18:16AA 6354 · flown by SkyWest 3h 58m Phoenix PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156 10h 47m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Los Angeles LAX 23:15 → EWR 07:30 +1UA 2303 9h 43m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → SMF 13:19 → MSP 18:48DL 1701 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 7h 37m 89% 71%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 9h 37m 98% 69%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 17:08 → SEA 19:07AS 683 3h 33m Seattle SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314 10h 51m 96% 68%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961 1h 24m Denver DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613 7h 44m 91% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 19:03 → SFO 20:10UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698 7h 48m 68% 56%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:17 → ORD 20:33UA 2766 57m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 7h 36m 70% 55%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:11 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 46m San Francisco SFO 16:20 → EWR 01:10 +1UA 2626 7h 59m 58% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON