Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1276 SMF 09:00 → GEG 10:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2805 SMF 21:50 → GEG 23:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1276 Southwest	SMF 09:00	GEG 10:59	14%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 302 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 11:00	GEG 12:50	14%	2%	0.4%	81%
WN 3915 Southwest	SMF 21:30	GEG 23:28	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2805 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 21:50	GEG 23:40	21%	4%	0.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON