Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:52 pm at Sacramento); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 19:03, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 19:03 → SFO 20:10UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m San Francisco	SFO 23:19 → IAD 07:47 +1UA 2111	9h 44m	97%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 19:03 → SFO 20:10UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m San Francisco	SFO 21:30 → IAD 05:53 +1UA 357	7h 50m	74%	54%
American Details →	SMF 19:21 → LAX 21:01AA 6346 · flown by SkyWest	48m Los Angeles	LAX 21:49 → IAD 05:44 +1AA 3071	7h 23m	71%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON