tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:46 am at Sacramento); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via LAX, leaving 10:32, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1949 United Flight history → SMF 13:15 IAH 19:10 18% 4% 0.2% 88%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 10:13 → LAX 12:05UA 5220 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Los Angeles LAX 15:18 → IAH 20:41UA 2765 8h 28m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → SMF 10:50 → DEN 14:17UA 1023 1h 18m Denver DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489 6h 20m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → SMF 09:57 → ORD 15:33UA 1278 2h 12m Chicago ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954 8h 53m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → SMF 11:46 → SFO 12:53UA 5248 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → IAH 22:52UA 2305 9h 06m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961 3h 09m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 8h 06m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:11 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 18:39 → IAH 00:42 +1UA 2464 8h 31m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → SMF 14:15 → LAX 15:52DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Los Angeles LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287 7h 44m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → SMF 13:36 → SLC 16:13DL 1423 1h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 6h 14m 84% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961 47m Denver DEN 17:13 → IAH 20:35UA 1587 5h 35m 73% 53%
AmericanDetails → SMF 11:02 → DFW 16:35AA 2633 1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:50 → IAH 19:11AA 4923 · flown by SkyWest 6h 09m 74% 51%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:11 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → IAH 22:52UA 2305 6h 41m 67% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON